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Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:00

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

UPCOMING

Botev Vratsa

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.8% vs bookmaker-implied 40.0% — a clear edge.

+32.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-18.4%0-23.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.8%1-112.3%1-25.1%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-19.0%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.3%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 40.0% 2.50 +32.0%

Draw 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Away win 22.1% 35.7% 2.80 -22.9%

Over 2.5 47.7% 45.5% 2.20 +4.9%

Over 3.5 26.4% 25.0% 4.00 +3.4%

BTTS 48.0% 54.6% 1.83 -12.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.5% 2.60 +3.7%

Away O1.5 23.7% 35.7% 2.80 -20.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -56.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 53% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 2–0 10.8%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Septemvri Sofia1.5

Botev Vratsa0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 1.32

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Septemvri Sofia (H) 52.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +32.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Botev Vratsa (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Septemvri Sofia face Botev Vratsa in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Botev Vratsa 22%, so Septemvri Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Septemvri Sofia and 0.8 for Botev Vratsa (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Septemvri Sofia are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 0.73 for Botev Vratsa. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +32.4%.

Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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