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CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 16:00

CSKA Sofia

PPG 2.21 · HOME

UPCOMING

Botev Vratsa

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-15.2%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.7%1-19.8%1-23.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-15.8%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% 78.1% 1.28 -24.2%

Draw 23.9% 22.2% 4.50 +4.5%

Away win 16.9% 10.0% 10.00 +41.4%

Over 2.5 50.2% 56.5% 1.77 -11.2%

Over 3.5 29.7% 33.9% 2.95 -7.4%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Away O1.5 17.2% 17.4% 5.75 -0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.9%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia1.9

Botev Vratsa0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA · PPG 2.21

BOTEV VRATSA · PPG 0.94

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia (H) 59.2%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -24.2%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +4.5%

Botev Vratsa (A) 16.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia face Botev Vratsa in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Botev Vratsa 17%, so CSKA Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for CSKA Sofia and 0.7 for Botev Vratsa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 0.94 for Botev Vratsa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.2%.

CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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