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Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 8 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:15

Arda Kardzhali

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Botev Plovdiv

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.4% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+35.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-15.0%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-19.7%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.8%3-16.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.4% 47.6% 2.10 +35.2%

Draw 20.8% 30.8% 3.25 -19.4%

Away win 14.7% 31.3% 3.20 -31.8%

Over 2.5 52.3% 48.8% 2.05 +7.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 27.0% 3.70 +16.9%

BTTS 48.0% 55.6% 1.80 -13.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 46.5% 2.15 +20.0%

Away O1.5 18.8% 33.3% 3.00 -26.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -56.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.7%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arda Kardzhali1.9

Botev Plovdiv0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARDA KARDZHALI · PPG 2.11

BOTEV PLOVDIV · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.25 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arda Kardzhali (H) 64.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +35.2%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.4%

Botev Plovdiv (A) 14.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arda Kardzhali face Botev Plovdiv in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arda Kardzhali a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Botev Plovdiv 15%, so Arda Kardzhali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Arda Kardzhali and 0.7 for Botev Plovdiv (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arda Kardzhali are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.83 for Botev Plovdiv. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +52.0%.

Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions