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CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:15

CSKA Sofia

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cherno More Varna

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-13.6%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.9%1-18.3%1-23.2%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.4%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-17.2%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-17.0%4+-22.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.4% 69.4% 1.44 -5.8%

Draw 19.2% 26.3% 3.80 -16.2%

Away win 15.3% 16.7% 6.00 -4.9%

Over 2.5 62.0% 52.6% 1.90 +17.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 30.8% 3.25 +27.7%

BTTS 52.7% 51.3% 1.95 +2.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 59.9% 1.67 +9.9%

Away O1.5 21.5% 22.2% 4.50 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.4%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA Sofia2.3

Cherno More Varna0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA SOFIA · PPG 2.31

CHERNO MORE VARNA · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.31 vs 1.06 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

CSKA Sofia (H) 65.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -5.8%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -16.2%

Cherno More Varna (A) 15.3%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA Sofia face Cherno More Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA Sofia a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Cherno More Varna 15%, so CSKA Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for CSKA Sofia and 0.8 for Cherno More Varna (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA Sofia are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 1.06 for Cherno More Varna. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +29.3%. This match finished 3-1.

CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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