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Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:00

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Ludogorets

PPG 2.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-111.7%0-29.5%0-35.1%0-4+3.0%1 1-07.3%1-111.8%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.7%2-15.9%2-24.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 18.2% 5.50 +18.5%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 52.6% 65.4% 1.53 -19.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 54.0% 57.1% 1.75 -5.5%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.0%

A 53% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.8%

#2 0–1 11.7%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spartak Varna1.0

Ludogorets1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.32

LUDOGORETS · PPG 2.03

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Spartak Varna (H) 23.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +18.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Ludogorets (A) 52.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spartak Varna face Ludogorets in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spartak Varna a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Ludogorets 53%, so Ludogorets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Spartak Varna and 1.6 for Ludogorets (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spartak Varna are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 2.03 for Ludogorets. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +39.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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