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Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:15

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Arda Kardzhali

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-114.6%0-28.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.4%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.6%2-16.2%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.9%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 24.4% 4.10 +23.8%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 42.5% 54.1% 1.85 -21.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 40.8% 2.45 +5.6%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 23.8% 4.20 +29.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 14.6%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Plovdiv0.9

Arda Kardzhali1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV PLOVDIV · PPG 1.73

ARDA KARDZHALI · PPG 1.39

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.01 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H) 30.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.8%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Arda Kardzhali (A) 42.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Plovdiv face Arda Kardzhali in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Plovdiv a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Arda Kardzhali 43%, so Arda Kardzhali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.1 for Arda Kardzhali (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Plovdiv are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.39 for Arda Kardzhali. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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