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Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:15

Levski Sofia

PPG 2.49 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

6 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Spartak Varna

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.0%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.2%1-18.7%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.2%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.6%3-16.8%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-16.1%4+-22.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 80.0% 1.25 -19.8%

Draw 20.8% 20.0% 5.00 +2.4%

Away win 15.0% 9.8% 10.25 +32.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 32.6% 38.5% 2.60 -15.2%

BTTS 49.1% 47.6% 2.10 +3.1%

Home O1.5 63.8% 73.5% 1.36 -13.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 17.4% 5.75 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.1%

H 64% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 1–1 8.7%

#4 3–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Levski Sofia2.2

Spartak Varna0.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVSKI SOFIA · PPG 2.49

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Levski Sofia (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -19.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.4%

Spartak Varna (A) 15.0%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Levski Sofia face Spartak Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Levski Sofia a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Spartak Varna 15%, so Levski Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Levski Sofia and 0.7 for Spartak Varna (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Levski Sofia are averaging 2.49 points per game versus 1.17 for Spartak Varna. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.0%. This match finished 6-0.

Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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