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Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 18:15

Arda Kardzhali

PPG 1.81 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lokomotiv Sofia

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-18.1%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.6%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-18.9%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.7%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 56.5% 1.77 -13.5%

Draw 27.7% 29.0% 3.45 -2.7%

Away win 23.4% 24.4% 4.10 -2.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 51.8% 1.93 -17.6%

Over 3.5 24.4% 29.9% 3.35 -11.0%

BTTS 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Home O1.5 45.1% 54.1% 1.85 -16.6%

Away O1.5 17.8% 29.9% 3.35 -24.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arda Kardzhali1.5

Lokomotiv Sofia0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARDA KARDZHALI · PPG 1.81

LOKOMOTIV SOFIA · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arda Kardzhali (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -13.5%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -2.7%

Lokomotiv Sofia (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arda Kardzhali face Lokomotiv Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arda Kardzhali a 49% chance, the draw 28% and Lokomotiv Sofia 23%, so Arda Kardzhali are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arda Kardzhali and 0.8 for Lokomotiv Sofia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arda Kardzhali are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.18 for Lokomotiv Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%.

Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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