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Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 7 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-17.4%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.2%1-23.5%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.4%2-18.4%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 25.9% 30.8% 3.25 -9.5%

Away win 21.5% 23.8% 4.20 -5.8%

Over 2.5 44.0% 48.8% 2.05 -9.8%

Over 3.5 23.2% 27.4% 3.65 -9.2%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 51.3% 1.95 -21.8%

Away O1.5 16.9% 28.2% 3.55 -24.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 2–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–1✓ 11.2%

#5 0–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Sofia1.5

Septemvri Sofia0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.37

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 1.04

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Sofia (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -9.5%

Septemvri Sofia (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Sofia face Septemvri Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Sofia a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Septemvri Sofia 22%, so Slavia Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Slavia Sofia and 0.6 for Septemvri Sofia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Sofia are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.04 for Septemvri Sofia. This match finished 1-1.

Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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