Serie B

BRAZIL · 103 MATCHES TRACKED · 9 MAY 2026 – 18 JUL 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 101 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

45.5%

1X2

46/101

57.4%

O/U 2.5

58/101

56.4%

BTTS

57/101

57.4%

Exact score

58/101

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

58.8%

Hit rate

20/34

1.99

Avg odds

+15.6%

ROI

+5.3u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=20 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.86 · -6.2% ROI

HOME WIN · N=7 71.4% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +12.6% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 2.77 · +110.7% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.20 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

33%

Hit

-28.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

75%

Hit

+38.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

64%

Hit

+18.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

62%

Hit

+26.2%

ROI

Match log

101 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

July 2026 // 8 PICKS · 5 HIT · 3 MISS

18 JUL Criciuma vs Vila Nova — NO PICK 2–0 —18 JUL Sport Recife vs Operario PR BTTS +2% 2–2 HIT 18 JUL Ponte Preta vs Goias BTTS +8% 1–2 HIT 18 JUL Atletico GO vs Athletic Club — NO PICK 0–0 —17 JUL Sao Bernardo vs Avai Over 2.5 +30% 1–1 MISS 17 JUL Juventude vs Cuiaba — NO PICK 2–0 —17 JUL America MG vs Ceara — NO PICK 1–1 —16 JUL CRB vs Nautico BTTS +6% 2–1 HIT 13 JUL America MG vs Londrina Away +120% 1–1 MISS 13 JUL Ceara vs Athletic Club — NO PICK 0–0 —12 JUL Operario PR vs Novorizontino BTTS -4% 2–1 HIT 12 JUL Avai vs Nautico BTTS +3% 2–0 MISS 12 JUL Sao Bernardo vs Cuiaba — NO PICK 2–2 —12 JUL Atletico GO vs Fortaleza — NO PICK 1–0 —12 JUL CRB vs Goias BTTS +6% 2–2 HIT