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Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 22:30

Athletic Club

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

1 – 4

FULL TIME

Novorizontino

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.8%0-114.3%0-27.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.1%1-113.5%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.2%2-16.4%2-23.3%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 34.5% 2.90 +0.3%

Draw 31.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Away win 34.2% 40.0% 2.50 -14.5%

Over 2.5 42.8% 41.7% 2.40 +2.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.8%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–1 14.3%

#5 2–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club0.9

Novorizontino1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.58

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.09, combined xG 1.98 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +0.3%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.6%

Novorizontino (A) 34.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Novorizontino in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Novorizontino 34%, so Athletic Club are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Athletic Club and 1.0 for Novorizontino (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.42 for Novorizontino. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 1-4.

Athletic Club vs Novorizontino Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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