Today / Brazil - Serie B / Criciuma vs Cuiaba
Criciuma vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B
Criciuma
PPG 2.08 · HOME
Cuiaba
PPG 1.42 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-021.2% 0-112.7% 0-23.8% 0-30.8% 0-4+0.1% 1 1-020.1% 1-112.1% 1-23.6% 1-30.7% 1-4+0.1% 2 2-09.6% 2-15.8% 2-21.7% 2-30.3% 2-4+0.1% 3 3-03.0% 3-11.8% 3-20.5% 3-30.1% 3-4+0.0% 4+ 4+-00.9% 4+-10.5% 4+-20.2% 4+-30.0% 4+-4+0.0%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 39.0% 52.6% 1.90 -25.9%
Draw 32.0% 31.7% 3.15 +0.8%
Away win 29.0% 22.7% 4.40 +16.6%
Over 2.5 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%
Over 3.5 18.0% 18.2% 5.50 -0.6%
BTTS 42.4% 43.5% 2.30 -2.5%
Home O1.5 30.8% 41.7% 2.40 -26.1%
Away O1.5 15.4% 21.1% 4.75 -16.1%
League track record ↗
Based on 171 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 45%
O2.5 55%
BTTS 53%
Score Hit 58%
ROI 18.7%
Bet Hit 58%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
2 – 0 37% CONFIDENCE
xG (home) 1.0 xG (away) 0.6 BTTS prob 42.4%
H 39% / xG 1.0-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 0–0 21.2%
#2 1–0 20.1%
#3 0–1 12.7%
#4 1–1 12.1%
#5 2–0 9.6%
Form & verdict PPG
⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.35, combined xG 1.55 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 25 matches · 2026 Criciuma ▾ lower is better Cuiaba
Attack
5.2 Shots outside box
5.4 28.9% Shooting accuracy
32.5% 26.8% Goals per shot on target
21.5% 1.16 xG for 23·25 of 25
1.10 Defence
3.4 Shots on target faced▾
2.6 0.76 Goals conceded▾
0.76 0.87 xG against▾ 23·25 of 25
0.76 Control
80.6% Pass accuracy
81.3% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction Criciuma face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Criciuma a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Cuiaba 29%, so Criciuma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Criciuma and 0.6 for Cuiaba (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Criciuma are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 1.42 for Cuiaba.
Matchday 26 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:30
