Today / Brazil - Serie B / America Mineiro vs Ponte Preta

America Mineiro vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

America Mineiro

PPG 0.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ponte Preta

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 42.6% — a clear edge.

+23.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-17.9%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.3%1-112.1%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.3%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.3%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 90.1% 1.11 -44.3%

Draw 24.6% 11.2% 8.90 +71.4%

Away win 25.2% 5.7% 17.50 +204.6%

Over 2.5 51.3% 72.5% 1.38 -29.2%

Over 3.5 30.9% 51.3% 1.95 -39.7%

BTTS 52.7% 42.6% 2.35 +23.8%

Home O1.5 42.9% 85.5% 1.17 -49.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 16.7% 6.00 +32.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 2–0✓ 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

America Mineiro1.5

Ponte Preta0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.55

PONTE PRETA · PPG 0.27

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

America Mineiro (H) 50.2%

ODDS 1.11 · IMPLIED 90.1% EV -44.3%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 8.90 · IMPLIED 11.2% EV +71.4%

Ponte Preta (A) 25.2%

ODDS 17.50 · IMPLIED 5.7% EV +204.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

America Mineiro face Ponte Preta in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives America Mineiro a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Ponte Preta 25%, so America Mineiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for America Mineiro and 0.9 for Ponte Preta (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, America Mineiro are averaging 0.55 points per game versus 0.27 for Ponte Preta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +188.8%. This match finished 2-0.

America Mineiro vs Ponte Preta Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions