Today / Brazil - Serie B / Sport Recife vs America Mineiro

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 22:30

Sport Recife

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

America Mineiro

PPG 0.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-13.8%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.9%1-18.3%1-22.7%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-19.1%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.3%3-16.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-16.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 61.7% 1.62 +6.6%

Draw 19.8% 28.6% 3.50 -18.4%

Away win 14.5% 20.0% 5.00 -16.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 33.9% 29.4% 3.40 +15.3%

BTTS 49.2% 54.1% 1.85 -9.0%

Home O1.5 65.7% 54.6% 1.83 +20.2%

Away O1.5 17.7% 23.1% 4.33 -14.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.2%

H 66% / xG 2.2-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.1%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 3–0✓ 10.3%

#4 1–1 8.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Recife2.2

America Mineiro0.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.58

AMERICA MINEIRO · PPG 0.42

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.54 for Home, form 1.58 vs 0.42 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sport Recife (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +6.6%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -18.4%

America Mineiro (A) 14.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Recife face America Mineiro in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Recife a 66% chance, the draw 20% and America Mineiro 14%, so Sport Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Sport Recife and 0.6 for America Mineiro (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Recife are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.42 for America Mineiro. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Sport Recife vs America Mineiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions