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Avai vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Avai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Atletico Goianiense

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.3%0-112.2%0-25.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.1%2-17.4%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.0%3-12.7%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.9%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 40.3% 2.48 +6.4%

Draw 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

Away win 29.2% 34.2% 2.92 -8.8%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 47.2% 51.8% 1.93 -8.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.0% 2.70 -16.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 43% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 13.3%

#4 0–1✓ 12.2%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Avai1.1

Atletico Goianiense0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AVAI · PPG 1.50

ATLETICO GOIANIENSE · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 2.02 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Avai (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +6.4%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.9%

Atletico Goianiense (A) 29.2%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Avai face Atletico Goianiense in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Avai a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Goianiense 29%, so Avai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Avai and 0.9 for Atletico Goianiense (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Avai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.27 for Atletico Goianiense. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Avai vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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