Today / Brazil - Serie B / Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba

Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:30

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.6%0-112.2%0-24.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.9%1-113.1%1-25.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.1%2-17.1%2-22.7%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.3%3-12.5%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 47.2% 2.12 -17.1%

Draw 31.3% 32.8% 3.05 -4.5%

Away win 29.6% 26.7% 3.75 +6.6%

Over 2.5 37.8% 39.2% 2.55 -3.6%

Over 3.5 19.7% 20.0% 5.00 -0.9%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 30.9% 40.0% 2.50 -22.8%

Away O1.5 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.6%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1 13.1%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo SP1.1

Cuiaba0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.64

CUIABA · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 1.85 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo SP (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -17.1%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -4.5%

Cuiaba (A) 29.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo SP face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo SP a 39% chance, the draw 31% and Cuiaba 30%, so Botafogo SP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Botafogo SP and 0.8 for Cuiaba (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo SP are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.27 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Botafogo SP vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie B Predictions