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Athletic Club vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:30

Athletic Club

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLL

UPCOMING

Vila Nova

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.1%0-26.3%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.6%1-113.2%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-17.8%2-24.5%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 38.8% 2.58 -10.0%

Draw 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -17.3%

Away win 41.4% 35.0% 2.86 +18.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 41.7% 2.40 +21.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Home O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.9%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 11.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 0–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic Club1.2

Vila Nova1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.46

VILA NOVA · PPG 1.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.33 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Athletic Club (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -10.0%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.3%

Vila Nova (A) 41.4%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic Club face Vila Nova in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic Club a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Vila Nova 41%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Athletic Club and 1.1 for Vila Nova (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic Club are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.15 for Vila Nova. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.8%.

Athletic Club vs Vila Nova Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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