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Vila Nova vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Vila Nova

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ceara

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+11.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.4%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.2%1-24.1%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.7%3-16.1%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.5%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 52.6% 1.90 +11.3%

Draw 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

Away win 18.7% 23.8% 4.20 -12.9%

Over 2.5 53.5% 44.4% 2.25 +20.4%

Over 3.5 31.5% 23.1% 4.33 +36.4%

BTTS 50.2% 51.3% 1.95 -2.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 46.5% 2.15 +21.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 25.6% 3.90 -5.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.2%

H 59% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 12.2%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vila Nova1.9

Ceara0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VILA NOVA · PPG 2.36

CEARA · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vila Nova (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV +11.3%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -15.0%

Ceara (A) 18.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -12.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vila Nova face Ceara in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vila Nova a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Ceara 19%, so Vila Nova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Vila Nova and 0.8 for Ceara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vila Nova are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.91 for Ceara. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Vila Nova vs Ceara Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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