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Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:30

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Athletic Club

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-111.1%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.0%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.0%2-17.9%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.6%3-13.1%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 50.8% 1.97 -10.8%

Draw 27.6% 30.8% 3.25 -6.2%

Away win 27.2% 25.3% 3.95 +4.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 46.5% 2.15 -3.7%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 32.2% 46.5% 2.15 -30.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–1 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.2

Athletic Club0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.55

ATHLETIC CLUB · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -10.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.2%

Athletic Club (A) 27.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Athletic Club in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Athletic Club 27%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nautico Recife and 0.9 for Athletic Club (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.36 for Athletic Club. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Nautico Recife vs Athletic Club Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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