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Novorizontino vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 23:30

Novorizontino

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sport Recife

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-18.8%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.6%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-18.9%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.7%3-14.2%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 58.8% 1.70 -18.6%

Draw 27.4% 29.0% 3.45 -3.3%

Away win 24.7% 19.2% 5.20 +17.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.3% 3.80 +5.4%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 52.4% 1.91 -23.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 23.8% 4.20 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Novorizontino1.4

Sport Recife0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NOVORIZONTINO · PPG 1.82

SPORT RECIFE · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Novorizontino (H) 47.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -18.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.3%

Sport Recife (A) 24.7%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +17.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Novorizontino face Sport Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Novorizontino a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Sport Recife 25%, so Novorizontino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Novorizontino and 0.9 for Sport Recife (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Novorizontino are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.45 for Sport Recife. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Novorizontino vs Sport Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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