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Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 26 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 23:00

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDW

UPCOMING

Botafogo SP

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-111.2%0-24.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.1%1-112.9%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.9%2-17.5%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.4% 51.0% 1.96 -7.1%

Draw 28.5% 29.9% 3.35 -2.7%

Away win 24.2% 26.0% 3.85 -4.1%

Over 2.5 42.4% 47.6% 2.10 -11.0%

Over 3.5 20.9% 26.0% 3.85 -11.7%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 31.5% 47.6% 2.10 -33.9%

Away O1.5 20.1% 29.0% 3.45 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 0–0 14.8%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico Recife1.2

Botafogo SP0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.67

BOTAFOGO SP · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.40, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nautico Recife (H) 47.4%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -7.1%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.7%

Botafogo SP (A) 24.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico Recife face Botafogo SP in Brazil - Serie B on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico Recife a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Botafogo SP 24%, so Nautico Recife are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nautico Recife and 0.8 for Botafogo SP (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico Recife are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Botafogo SP.

Nautico Recife vs Botafogo SP Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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