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CRB vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:00

CRB

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Criciuma

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-111.5%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.8%1-113.4%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.0%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.0% 44.4% 2.25 -7.8%

Draw 28.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.9%

Away win 30.6% 29.4% 3.40 +4.0%

Over 2.5 44.3% 42.6% 2.35 +4.1%

Over 3.5 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

BTTS 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Home O1.5 31.5% 40.8% 2.45 -22.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 29.4% 3.40 +10.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 11.5%

#5 2–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CRB1.2

Criciuma1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.3% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CRB · PPG 1.36

CRICIUMA · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.13, combined xG 2.21 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

CRB (H) 41.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.8%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.9%

Criciuma (A) 30.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

CRB face Criciuma in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CRB a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Criciuma 31%, so CRB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for CRB and 1.0 for Criciuma (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CRB are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.58 for Criciuma. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 2-1.

CRB vs Criciuma Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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