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Fortaleza EC vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:30

Fortaleza EC

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Operario-PR

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.0%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.5%1-111.5%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.2%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 56.8% 1.76 -6.7%

Draw 25.3% 29.4% 3.40 -8.4%

Away win 21.7% 20.8% 4.80 +2.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 49.6% 50.0% 2.00 -0.8%

Home O1.5 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Away O1.5 24.5% 23.8% 4.20 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fortaleza EC1.7

Operario-PR0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FORTALEZA EC · PPG 2.36

OPERARIO-PR · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.80 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fortaleza EC (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.76 · IMPLIED 56.8% EV -6.7%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.4%

Operario-PR (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fortaleza EC face Operario-PR in Brazil - Serie B on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fortaleza EC a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Operario-PR 22%, so Fortaleza EC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fortaleza EC and 0.9 for Operario-PR (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fortaleza EC are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.27 for Operario-PR. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Fortaleza EC vs Operario-PR Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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