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São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

São Bernardo

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nautico Recife

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.2%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 44.4% 2.25 +3.5%

Draw 26.1% 33.3% 3.00 -13.0%

Away win 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Over 3.5 28.6% 26.7% 3.75 +4.3%

BTTS 53.0% 54.1% 1.85 -1.9%

Home O1.5 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Away O1.5 33.7% 33.3% 3.00 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Bernardo1.5

Nautico Recife1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO BERNARDO · PPG 0.92

NAUTICO RECIFE · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

São Bernardo (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +3.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.0%

Nautico Recife (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Bernardo face Nautico Recife in Brazil - Serie B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Bernardo a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Nautico Recife 28%, so São Bernardo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for São Bernardo and 1.1 for Nautico Recife (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Bernardo are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.08 for Nautico Recife. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-1.

São Bernardo vs Nautico Recife Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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