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Juventude vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 22:30

Juventude

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

CRB

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-16.9%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-110.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Draw 26.8% 31.3% 3.20 -8.5%

Away win 21.3% 23.0% 4.35 -4.4%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 22.2% 4.50 -4.1%

BTTS 43.7% 48.8% 2.05 -10.4%

Home O1.5 47.1% 45.5% 2.20 +3.6%

Away O1.5 16.7% 25.0% 4.00 -19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 171 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 13.8%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventude1.6

CRB0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUDE · PPG 2.25

CRB · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juventude (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.5%

CRB (A) 21.3%

ODDS 4.35 · IMPLIED 23.0% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventude face CRB in Brazil - Serie B on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventude a 52% chance, the draw 27% and CRB 21%, so Juventude are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Juventude and 0.6 for CRB (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventude are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.75 for CRB. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Juventude vs CRB Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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