Premyer Liqa

AZERBAIJAN · 32 MATCHES TRACKED · 17 APR 2026 – 24 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 32 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

56.2%

1X2

18/32

53.1%

O/U 2.5

17/32

65.6%

BTTS

21/32

68.8%

Exact score

22/32

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

73.9%

Hit rate

17/23

1.67

Avg odds

+23.6%

ROI

+5.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=9 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.77 · +18.3% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.62 · +6.3% ROI

HOME WIN · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.47 · +26.5% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · +91.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+11.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+108.3%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

67%

Hit

+5.6%

ROI

Match log

32 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 11 PICKS · 8 HIT · 3 MISS

24 MAY Imisli vs Karvan — NO PICK 1–1 —23 MAY Kapaz vs Neftci Away -3% 0–1 HIT 23 MAY Araz vs Zira BTTS -7% 3–2 HIT 22 MAY Turan vs Sabah — NO PICK 1–2 —22 MAY Sumqayit vs Qarabag Away -29% 3–4 HIT 17 MAY Zira vs Sumqayit BTTS +1% 2–1 HIT 17 MAY Sabah vs Neftci Over 2.5 -7% 1–2 HIT 16 MAY Qarabag vs Imisli Home -30% 3–0 HIT 15 MAY Karvan vs Qabala — NO PICK 1–2 —15 MAY Araz vs Kapaz BTTS -11% 2–0 MISS 10 MAY Turan vs Karvan Home -20% 1–0 HIT 9 MAY Qabala vs Qarabag Away -15% 1–1 MISS 9 MAY Sumqayit vs Araz Over 2.5 +22% 2–1 HIT 8 MAY Imisli vs Zira — NO PICK 0–0 —8 MAY Sabah vs Kapaz Home -11% 0–1 MISS