Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Araz vs Zira

Araz vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 15:00

Araz

PPG 1.63 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Zira

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.9%0-28.1%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.3%1-112.8%1-28.8%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.0%2-16.9%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.5%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 28.2% 3.55 +10.4%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

Away win 41.8% 51.3% 1.95 -18.5%

Over 2.5 47.6% 48.8% 2.05 -2.4%

Over 3.5 23.1% 27.4% 3.65 -9.4%

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.6%

A 42% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 8.8%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Araz1.1

Zira1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAZ · PPG 1.63

ZIRA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Araz (H) 31.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +10.4%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.2%

Zira (A) 41.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Araz face Zira in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Araz a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Zira 42%, so Zira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Araz and 1.4 for Zira (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Araz are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.60 for Zira. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 3-2.

Araz vs Zira Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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