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Neftchi Baku vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:45

Neftchi Baku

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Araz

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.0%0-22.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.4%1-110.0%1-25.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.6%3-23.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.2%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 69.4% 1.44 -24.0%

Draw 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Away win 22.0% 16.7% 6.00 +19.2%

Over 2.5 53.9% 52.6% 1.90 +2.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Away O1.5 34.0% 22.2% 4.50 +53.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neftchi Baku2.0

Araz1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEFTCHI BAKU · PPG 1.50

ARAZ · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Neftchi Baku (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -24.0%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

Araz (A) 22.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neftchi Baku face Araz in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neftchi Baku a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Araz 22%, so Neftchi Baku are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Neftchi Baku and 1.1 for Araz (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neftchi Baku are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.21 for Araz. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +53.0%. This match finished 5-0.

Neftchi Baku vs Araz Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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