Today / Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa / Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 16:15

Kapaz

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

UPCOMING

Şamaxı FK

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-111.8%0-25.3%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.9%1-113.4%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.4%2-17.5%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.2%3-12.8%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.8% 39.2% 2.55 +1.5%

Draw 31.4% 35.1% 2.85 -10.5%

Away win 28.8% 35.7% 2.80 -11.6%

Over 2.5 38.8% 40.8% 2.45 -4.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.2% 4.50 -3.6%

BTTS 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Home O1.5 31.2% 35.7% 2.80 -12.6%

Away O1.5 25.9% 33.3% 3.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 40% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 1–0 14.9%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz1.1

Şamaxı FK0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 1.38

ŞAMAXI FK · PPG 1.03

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.03 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 39.8%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +1.5%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.5%

Şamaxı FK (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Şamaxı FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 40% chance, the draw 31% and Şamaxı FK 29%, so Kapaz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kapaz and 0.9 for Şamaxı FK (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.03 for Şamaxı FK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.2%.

Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

More Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Predictions