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Araz vs Sabah FA Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 14:00

Araz

PPG 1.53 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sabah FA

PPG 2.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.7%0-28.0%0-34.4%0-4+2.7%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.1%2-16.8%2-25.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.7%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 17.9% 5.60 +25.0%

Draw 24.9% 24.4% 4.10 +1.3%

Away win 49.8% 67.6% 1.48 -26.3%

Over 2.5 53.7% 60.6% 1.65 -11.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.5% 2.60 -17.8%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 28.2% 3.55 +17.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 66.7% 1.50 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.9%

A 50% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 0–1✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Araz1.2

Sabah FA1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ARAZ · PPG 1.53

SABAH FA · PPG 2.23

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Araz (H) 25.3%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +25.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +1.3%

Sabah FA (A) 49.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Araz face Sabah FA in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Araz a 25% chance, the draw 25% and Sabah FA 50%, so Sabah FA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Araz and 1.7 for Sabah FA (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Araz are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.23 for Sabah FA. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Araz vs Sabah FA Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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