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Imisli vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 33 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Imisli

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Karvan

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.2%0-111.0%0-24.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.7%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.8%2-17.6%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.8%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 54.1% 1.85 -16.2%

Draw 30.3% 29.9% 3.35 +1.5%

Away win 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 51.3% 1.95 -31.8%

Over 3.5 13.4% 29.9% 3.35 -33.1%

BTTS 48.6% 56.5% 1.77 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.6%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.2%

#2 1–1✓ 13.0%

#3 1–0 16.7%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 0–1 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imisli1.2

Karvan0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IMISLI · PPG 0.60

KARVAN · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Imisli (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.2%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +1.5%

Karvan (A) 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imisli face Karvan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imisli a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Karvan 24%, so Imisli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Imisli and 0.8 for Karvan (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imisli are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Karvan. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Imisli vs Karvan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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