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Sumqayit vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 15:30

Sumqayit

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Qarabag

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-111.9%0-210.6%0-36.3%0-4+4.3%1 1-06.1%1-111.0%1-29.8%1-35.9%1-4+3.9%2 2-02.8%2-15.1%2-24.5%2-32.7%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.2% 13.5% 7.40 +38.6%

Draw 24.5% 21.1% 4.75 +9.8%

Away win 53.3% 75.2% 1.33 -29.1%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% 40.8% 2.45 -17.5%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob51.6%

A 53% / xG 0.9-1.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 0–2 10.6%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sumqayit0.9

Qarabag1.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.33

QARABAG · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Sumqayit (H) 22.2%

ODDS 7.40 · IMPLIED 13.5% EV +38.6%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +9.8%

Qarabag (A) 53.3%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -29.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sumqayit face Qarabag in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sumqayit a 22% chance, the draw 25% and Qarabag 53%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sumqayit and 1.8 for Qarabag (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sumqayit are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Qarabag. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +38.6%. This match finished 3-4.

Sumqayit vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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