Sumqayit vs Qarabag Prediction & Tips

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Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Regular Season - 33 Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium· Sumqayit Friday, May 22, 2026 15:30

Sumqayit PPG 1.33

3-4 MISS

Qarabag PPG 2.00

Home· +38.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 22.2%

Odds: 7.40 EV: +38.6%

Draw 24.5%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +9.8%

Away 53.3%

Odds: 1.33 EV: -29.1%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.6% Odds: 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 28.9% Odds: 2.45 -17.5%

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.83 -5.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-2 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sumqayit

0.92

Qarabag

1.79

Model SuggestionAway -29.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -29.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+38.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)