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Zira vs Neftchi Baku Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:15

Zira

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Neftchi Baku

PPG 2.05 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-19.1%0-26.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.5%1 1-08.5%1-112.1%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.0%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 38.2% 2.62 -4.9%

Draw 25.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.9%

Away win 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 31.5% 27.0% 3.70 +16.6%

BTTS 55.0% 56.5% 1.77 -2.6%

Home O1.5 37.4% 39.2% 2.55 -4.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.0%

A 38% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 1–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zira1.3

Neftchi Baku1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIRA · PPG 2.03

NEFTCHI BAKU · PPG 2.05

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zira (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -4.9%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.9%

Neftchi Baku (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zira face Neftchi Baku in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zira a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Neftchi Baku 38%, so Neftchi Baku are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zira and 1.4 for Neftchi Baku (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zira are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 2.05 for Neftchi Baku. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 1-0.

Zira vs Neftchi Baku Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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