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Kapaz vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Kapaz

PPG 0.87 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Neftci

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-113.7%0-213.3%0-38.6%0-4+6.5%1 1-05.0%1-19.8%1-29.4%1-36.1%1-4+4.6%2 2-01.8%2-13.5%2-23.4%2-32.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 19.6% 5.10 -16.6%

Draw 24.3% 26.3% 3.80 -4.6%

Away win 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 27.4% 37.0% 2.70 -15.6%

BTTS 49.2% 59.9% 1.67 -17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob49.2%

A 62% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.3%

#2 0–1✓ 13.7%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–3 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz0.7

Neftci1.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 0.87

NEFTCI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 14.2%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -16.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -4.6%

Neftci (A) 61.5%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Neftci in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Neftci 62%, so Neftci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Kapaz and 1.9 for Neftci (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 2.00 for Neftci. This match finished 0-1.

Kapaz vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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