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Zira vs Imisli FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:45

Zira

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Imisli FK

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-19.9%0-23.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.8%1-112.4%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-17.8%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 69.0% 1.45 -33.5%

Draw 32.7% 26.7% 3.75 +22.6%

Away win 21.4% 14.3% 7.00 +29.9%

Over 2.5 35.5% 47.6% 2.10 -25.4%

Over 3.5 18.3% 26.3% 3.80 -18.3%

BTTS 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Home O1.5 36.1% 58.8% 1.70 -38.6%

Away O1.5 17.9% 18.2% 5.50 -0.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob43.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 11.2%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zira1.3

Imisli FK0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ZIRA · PPG 1.86

IMISLI FK · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Zira (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -33.5%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +22.6%

Imisli FK (A) 21.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zira face Imisli FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zira a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Imisli FK 21%, so Zira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Zira and 0.7 for Imisli FK (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zira are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.37 for Imisli FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +39.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Zira vs Imisli FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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