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Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 15:30

Qarabag

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Şamaxı FK

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-17.2%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.7%1-111.6%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.2%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.3%3-14.9%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 66.7% 1.50 -20.2%

Draw 24.7% 23.1% 4.33 +4.2%

Away win 22.2% 20.0% 5.00 +6.6%

Over 2.5 50.1% 66.7% 1.50 -24.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 43.5% 2.30 -21.2%

BTTS 49.1% 62.5% 1.60 -21.4%

Home O1.5 47.4% 69.0% 1.45 -31.3%

Away O1.5 20.5% 33.3% 3.00 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.7%

#2 1–1 11.6%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qarabag1.6

Şamaxı FK0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

QARABAG · PPG 1.90

ŞAMAXI FK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Qarabag (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.2%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +4.2%

Şamaxı FK (A) 22.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qarabag face Şamaxı FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qarabag a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Şamaxı FK 22%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Qarabag and 0.8 for Şamaxı FK (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qarabag are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.25 for Şamaxı FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Qarabag vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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