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Kapaz vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Kapaz

PPG 1.05 · HOME

LAST 5

LW ···

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Turan

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDL ··

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 40.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-112.1%0-28.1%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-16.9%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.2% 22.2% 4.50 +16.1%

Draw 30.9% 30.3% 3.30 +2.0%

Away win 40.9% 57.8% 1.73 -29.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 26.7% 25.0% 4.00 +4.1%

BTTS 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 25.0% 4.00 +23.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 51.3% 1.95 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.8%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.1%

#3 0–1 12.1%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kapaz1.1

Turan1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAPAZ · PPG 1.05

TURAN · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.26, combined xG 2.40 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kapaz (H) 28.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +16.1%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +2.0%

Turan (A) 40.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -29.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kapaz face Turan in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kapaz a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Turan 41%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kapaz and 1.3 for Turan (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kapaz are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.64 for Turan. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Kapaz vs Turan Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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