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Qabala vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Qabala

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Şamaxı FK

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-111.7%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.4%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.1%2-17.6%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.7%3-12.9%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 54.1% 1.85 -32.1%

Draw 33.1% 32.3% 3.10 +2.6%

Away win 30.2% 25.6% 3.90 +17.8%

Over 2.5 43.1% 44.4% 2.25 -3.0%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.0% 4.00 -10.3%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 31.1% 44.4% 2.25 -30.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 26.7% 3.75 +23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0✓ 10.9%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qabala1.1

Şamaxı FK1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

QABALA · PPG 1.01

ŞAMAXI FK · PPG 1.04

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qabala (H) 36.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -32.1%

Draw 33.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +2.6%

Şamaxı FK (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qabala face Şamaxı FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qabala a 37% chance, the draw 33% and Şamaxı FK 30%, so Qabala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Qabala and 1.1 for Şamaxı FK (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qabala are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.04 for Şamaxı FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Qabala vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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