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Sabah vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 14:00

Sabah

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neftci

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.0%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.6%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.3%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 56.5% 1.77 -9.9%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 56.5% 1.77 -6.9%

Over 3.5 26.6% 33.9% 2.95 -12.9%

BTTS 51.6% 59.9% 1.67 -13.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sabah1.7

Neftci1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SABAH · PPG 2.25

NEFTCI · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.93)

Win probability 1X2

Sabah (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -9.9%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Neftci (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sabah face Neftci in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sabah a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Neftci 24%, so Sabah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Sabah and 1.0 for Neftci (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sabah are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.93 for Neftci. This match finished 1-2.

Sabah vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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