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Turan vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:30

Turan

PPG 1.96 · HOME

LAST 5

WDL ··

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Şamaxı FK

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.0%0-18.1%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.1%1-111.9%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.8%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.3%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 64.5% 1.55 -20.5%

Draw 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Away win 21.4% 17.2% 5.80 +14.5%

Over 2.5 42.7% 48.1% 2.08 -11.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 26.7% 3.75 -13.7%

BTTS 47.4% 50.0% 2.00 -5.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 55.6% 1.80 -28.0%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.4%

H 51% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 0–0✓ 11.0%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turan1.5

Şamaxı FK0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TURAN · PPG 1.96

ŞAMAXI FK · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.73 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Turan (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -20.5%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Şamaxı FK (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +14.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turan face Şamaxı FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turan a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Şamaxı FK 21%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Turan and 0.7 for Şamaxı FK (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turan are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.04 for Şamaxı FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +38.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Turan vs Şamaxı FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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