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Turan vs Sabah Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 33 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 13:00

Turan

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Sabah

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-114.3%0-29.3%0-34.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.5%2-15.9%2-23.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.4%3-11.8%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Draw 28.5% 29.0% 3.45 -1.0%

Away win 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 18.3% 36.4% 2.75 -29.8%

BTTS 49.2% 63.7% 1.57 -22.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.2%

A 43% / xG 0.9-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.9%

#3 0–1 14.3%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 1–2✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turan0.9

Sabah1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TURAN · PPG 2.00

SABAH · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Turan (H) 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.0%

Sabah (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Turan face Sabah in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turan a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Sabah 43%, so Sabah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Turan and 1.3 for Sabah (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.60 for Sabah. This match finished 1-2.

Turan vs Sabah Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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