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Qabala vs Imisli FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 4 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 14:00

Qabala

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

UPCOMING

Imisli FK

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-112.8%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.1%2-17.0%2-23.0%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.8%3-12.4%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

Draw 32.0% 34.5% 2.90 -7.2%

Away win 29.5% 28.6% 3.50 +1.9%

Over 2.5 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

Over 3.5 18.5% 22.2% 4.50 -10.1%

BTTS 46.5% 47.6% 2.10 -2.4%

Home O1.5 30.8% 39.2% 2.55 -21.5%

Away O1.5 24.8% 27.0% 3.70 -4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.5%

D 32% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qabala1.0

Imisli FK0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

QABALA · PPG 1.01

IMISLI FK · PPG 1.40

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 1.91 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Qabala (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -7.2%

Imisli FK (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qabala face Imisli FK in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qabala a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Imisli FK 30%, so Qabala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Qabala and 0.9 for Imisli FK (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qabala are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.40 for Imisli FK. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.7%.

Qabala vs Imisli FK Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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