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Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 16:15

Sumqayıt

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Qarabag

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-18.9%0-27.1%0-33.8%0-4+2.1%1 1-07.2%1-111.5%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.4%2-25.9%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.0%3-13.2%3-22.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.1% 12.5% 8.00 +140.8%

Draw 25.3% 21.7% 4.60 +9.8%

Away win 44.6% 75.2% 1.33 -40.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 42.6% 2.35 -25.5%

BTTS 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 25.0% 4.00 +53.6%

Away O1.5 47.9% 73.5% 1.36 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 66%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 0–1✓ 8.9%

#5 0–2 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sumqayıt1.3

Qarabag1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.11

QARABAG · PPG 1.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sumqayıt (H) 30.1%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +140.8%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.8%

Qarabag (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -40.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sumqayıt face Qarabag in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sumqayıt a 30% chance, the draw 25% and Qarabag 45%, so Qarabag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sumqayıt and 1.6 for Qarabag (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sumqayıt are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.86 for Qarabag. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +97.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Sumqayıt vs Qarabag Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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