Leagues / USA / USL Championship

USL Championship

USA · 160 MATCHES TRACKED · 2 MAY 2026 – 4 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

Upcoming USL Championship predictions

1 FIXTURE WITH ODDS · MODEL PICK, PROBABILITY AND EV PER MATCH

DateMatchPickProbOddsEV

4 SEPT23:00 Loudoun United vs Colorado Springs BTTS 55% 1.60 -13%

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 153 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

48.4%

1X2

74/153

46.4%

O/U 2.5

71/153

52.9%

BTTS

81/153

47.1%

Exact score

72/153

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

47.8%

Hit rate

22/46

1.78

Avg odds

-17.0%

ROI

-7.8u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=23 43.5% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -26.4% ROI

BTTS · N=9 44.4% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -27.6% ROI

HOME WIN · N=7 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -14.4% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.64 · +27.2% ROI

AWAY WIN · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 2.23 · +17.5% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

67%

Hit

+32.8%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

44%

Hit

-31.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

41%

Hit

-29.6%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

75%

Hit

+24.0%

ROI

Match log

153 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS

2 SEPT Charleston Battery vs Hartford Athletic Home -12% 1–2 MISS

August 2026 // 12 PICKS · 7 HIT · 5 MISS

30 AUG Louisville City vs Detroit City BTTS +2% 0–0 MISS 30 AUG Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC BTTS -8% 1–1 HIT 30 AUG FC Tulsa vs Rhode Island BTTS -4% 1–0 MISS 30 AUG El Paso Locomotive vs Loudoun United HO1.5 4–1 HIT 30 AUG New Mexico United vs San Antonio Home +10% 1–2 MISS 30 AUG Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic BTTS -8% 1–1 HIT 30 AUG Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven BTTS -17% 2–1 HIT 30 AUG Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston Battery BTTS -2% 0–2 MISS 29 AUG Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies — NO PICK 0–0 —29 AUG Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion — NO PICK 3–2 —29 AUG Brooklyn vs Sporting JAX Over 2.5 -6% 4–1 HIT 29 AUG Lexington vs Colorado Springs Over 2.5 +7% 0–1 MISS 27 AUG El Paso Locomotive vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT 27 AUG New Mexico United vs Lexington BTTS -16% 2–1 HIT