Leagues / USA / USL Championship
USL Championship
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 73 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
46.6%
1X2
34/73
49.3%
O/U 2.5
36/73
60.3%
BTTS
44/73
49.3%
Exact score
36/73
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
64
Settled
59.4%
Hit rate
38/64
1.69
Avg odds
+0.1%
ROI
+0.1u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=33 63.6% HIT · AVG 1.67 · +5.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=12 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -14.5% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=12 58.3% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -1.2% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.88 · -2.5% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -11.5% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.45 · +45.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
7
Bets
57%
Hit
+13.9%
ROI
✓ Solid
11
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
14
Bets
86%
Hit
+43.5%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
32
Bets
69%
Hit
+12.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 13 PICKS · 8 HIT · 5 MISS
19 JUL San Antonio vs Las Vegas L. HO1.5 1–2 MISS19 JUL Phoenix Rising vs Monterey Bay HO1.5 3–2 HIT18 JUL Pittsburgh vs Louisville City BTTS -4% 3–1 HIT18 JUL Detroit City vs Indy Eleven Home -3% 2–0 HIT18 JUL Loudoun Utd vs Tampa Bay Away -15% 1–1 MISS18 JUL Sporting JAX vs Brooklyn FC BTTS +4% 2–2 HIT18 JUL Charleston vs Sacramento R. Home +0% 1–1 MISS18 JUL Rhode Island vs Hartford A. — NO PICK 1–0 —15 JUL Lexington vs New Mexico Over 2.5 -11% 1–4 HIT15 JUL Miami FC vs Indy Eleven BTTS -14% 2–0 MISS15 JUL Sporting JAX vs Pittsburgh Over 2.5 +23% 2–1 HIT9 JUL Sacramento R. vs Rhode Island BTTS -5% 2–1 HIT8 JUL Hartford A. vs Orange County — NO PICK 2–2 —5 JUL San Antonio vs Monterey Bay Home +6% 0–0 MISS5 JUL Colorado S. vs Phoenix Rising BTTS -3% 3–1 HIT