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Loudoun United vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:00

Loudoun United

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

UPCOMING

Colorado Springs

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-18.6%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.2%1-112.1%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.6%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.0%3-14.0%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 33.3% 3.00 +15.5%

Draw 26.0% 29.4% 3.40 -7.0%

Away win 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

Over 2.5 53.6% 55.6% 1.80 -3.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 54.6% 62.5% 1.60 -12.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 40.8% 2.45 -2.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 153 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun United1.4

Colorado Springs1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 0.92

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun United (H) 38.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +15.5%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.0%

Colorado Springs (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun United face Colorado Springs in USA - USL Championship on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun United a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Colorado Springs 35%, so Loudoun United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Loudoun United and 1.3 for Colorado Springs (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun United are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.00 for Colorado Springs. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +12.2%.

Loudoun United vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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