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El Paso Locomotive vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 01:00

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-18.4%0-24.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.5%1-112.4%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.1%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.2%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 46.5% 2.15 -1.5%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.8% 4.20 +12.3%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 40.1% 42.6% 2.35 -5.8%

Away O1.5 32.7% 32.3% 3.10 +1.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1✓ 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Paso Locomotive1.5

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.56

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

El Paso Locomotive (H) 45.8%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -1.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Paso Locomotive face Pittsburgh Riverhounds in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Paso Locomotive a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27%, so El Paso Locomotive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for El Paso Locomotive and 1.1 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Paso Locomotive are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.40 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +16.1%. This match finished 2-1.

El Paso Locomotive vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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