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Louisville City vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Louisville City

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Detroit City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.0%0-25.3%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.8%1-111.8%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-18.8%2-25.9%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.2%3-14.3%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 57.8% 1.73 -32.5%

Draw 25.6% 30.3% 3.30 -9.3%

Away win 35.4% 23.1% 4.33 +53.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

BTTS 55.0% 54.1% 1.85 +1.8%

Home O1.5 40.1% 54.6% 1.83 -26.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 29.4% 3.40 +39.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 0–0✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Louisville City1.5

Detroit City1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.70

DETROIT CITY · PPG 1.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Louisville City (H) 39.0%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -32.5%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.3%

Detroit City (A) 35.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +53.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Louisville City face Detroit City in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Louisville City a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Detroit City 35%, so Louisville City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Louisville City and 1.3 for Detroit City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Louisville City are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for Detroit City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +46.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Louisville City vs Detroit City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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