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Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:00

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Tampa Bay Rowdies

PPG 2.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-113.6%0-27.8%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.7%1-113.4%1-27.7%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.8%2-16.6%2-23.8%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.9%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 35.7% 2.80 -8.7%

Draw 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

Away win 39.1% 43.5% 2.30 -10.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 48.8% 2.05 -8.2%

Over 3.5 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 44.4% 2.25 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

D 28% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–1 13.6%

#3 0–0✓ 11.9%

#4 1–0 11.7%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.0

Tampa Bay Rowdies1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PITTSBURGH RIVERHOUNDS · PPG 1.73

TAMPA BAY ROWDIES · PPG 2.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pittsburgh Riverhounds (H) 32.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -8.7%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.1%

Tampa Bay Rowdies (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pittsburgh Riverhounds face Tampa Bay Rowdies in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pittsburgh Riverhounds a 33% chance, the draw 28% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 39%, so Tampa Bay Rowdies are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds and 1.1 for Tampa Bay Rowdies (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pittsburgh Riverhounds are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 2.18 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Tampa Bay Rowdies Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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