Today / USA - USL Championship / Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston Battery

Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston Battery Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:30

Las Vegas Lights

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Charleston Battery

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.8%0-24.9%0-32.3%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.0%1-27.9%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.9%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.3%3-14.8%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.8%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.0% 31.3% 3.20 +28.0%

Draw 24.4% 29.0% 3.45 -9.5%

Away win 35.6% 50.0% 2.00 -28.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.9% 2.95 +8.3%

BTTS 60.3% 61.7% 1.62 -2.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 38.5% 2.60 +27.1%

Away O1.5 40.9% 51.8% 1.93 -21.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–0 6.2%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Las Vegas Lights1.6

Charleston Battery1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAS VEGAS LIGHTS · PPG 1.60

CHARLESTON BATTERY · PPG 0.91

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.19 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Las Vegas Lights (H) 40.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +28.0%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.5%

Charleston Battery (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Las Vegas Lights face Charleston Battery in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Las Vegas Lights a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Charleston Battery 36%, so Las Vegas Lights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.4 for Charleston Battery (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Las Vegas Lights are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.91 for Charleston Battery. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +36.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Las Vegas Lights vs Charleston Battery Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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