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Lexington vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Lexington

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Colorado Springs

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-14.8%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.3%1-19.8%1-25.2%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.7%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.5%4+-22.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 46.5% 2.15 +14.6%

Draw 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -13.1%

Away win 23.7% 35.7% 2.80 -20.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

BTTS 55.0% 61.7% 1.62 -10.9%

Home O1.5 57.1% 54.6% 1.83 +4.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lexington2.0

Colorado Springs1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LEXINGTON · PPG 2.00

COLORADO SPRINGS · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lexington (H) 53.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +14.6%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.1%

Colorado Springs (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -20.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lexington face Colorado Springs in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lexington a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Colorado Springs 24%, so Lexington are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Lexington and 1.1 for Colorado Springs (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lexington are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Colorado Springs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Lexington vs Colorado Springs Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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